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LWR Aging Management For Life Beyond 80

Based on US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AOE) predictions, by 2050, the US nuclear capacity for electricity generation may decrease to ~ 80% of 2021 levels, Moreover, by 2050, nearly 50% of the existing US LWR fleet will be within 10 years of 80 years of operation suggesting that without a Life Beyond 80 (LBE) plan and limited new builds and advanced reactors, the US could lose up to 50% of its nuclear capacity resulting in a ~30-gigawatt (GW) capacity shortage by 2060. These numbers could change dramatically depending upon oil and gas supplies, and the growth of renewables.

Product Number: ED22-17299-SG
Author: Thomas M. Rosseel, Xiang Chen, Elena Tajuelo Rodriguez, Mikhail Sokolov, Maxim Gussev, Yann Le Pape, Frank Garner, Leo S. Fifield, S. W. Glass
Publication Date: 2022
$20.00
$20.00
$20.00

While several decades of materials degradation research enabled the current US fleet of Light Water Reactors (LWR) to plan to produce electrical power through extended operations up to 80 years of plant life, it now seems appropriate to evaluate what issues, methods, and timelines need to be considered to meet the expected electric power demands for life beyond eighty (LBE) years. To address these questions, it will be necessary to review the electrical capacity and the projected LWR fleet capacity including new builds and advanced reactors. This effort should begin with a materials degradation assessment focused on known and possible unknown issues using a reduced Expanded Materials Degradation Assessment, which was employed to identify knowledge gaps for a second license renewal (60-80 yrs.). The focus of the LBE assessment should include: Establishing a timeline to initiate assessments of possible
materials aging issues and to ensure sufficient time to evaluate materials degradation research gaps; assessing components and materials to be evaluated, e.g., metals (reactor pressure vessels and alloys within and outside the pressure boundary), concrete, cables, as well as mitigation methods, advanced monitoring, and validation with ex-service materials; initiating a LBE research plan focused on developing an expanded mechanistic understanding of materials degradation and refined models through Codes and Standards evaluation for use by the nuclear industry; and maintaining and strengthening the nuclear materials human knowledge base to
address new and as yet unknown degradation modes.

While several decades of materials degradation research enabled the current US fleet of Light Water Reactors (LWR) to plan to produce electrical power through extended operations up to 80 years of plant life, it now seems appropriate to evaluate what issues, methods, and timelines need to be considered to meet the expected electric power demands for life beyond eighty (LBE) years. To address these questions, it will be necessary to review the electrical capacity and the projected LWR fleet capacity including new builds and advanced reactors. This effort should begin with a materials degradation assessment focused on known and possible unknown issues using a reduced Expanded Materials Degradation Assessment, which was employed to identify knowledge gaps for a second license renewal (60-80 yrs.). The focus of the LBE assessment should include: Establishing a timeline to initiate assessments of possible
materials aging issues and to ensure sufficient time to evaluate materials degradation research gaps; assessing components and materials to be evaluated, e.g., metals (reactor pressure vessels and alloys within and outside the pressure boundary), concrete, cables, as well as mitigation methods, advanced monitoring, and validation with ex-service materials; initiating a LBE research plan focused on developing an expanded mechanistic understanding of materials degradation and refined models through Codes and Standards evaluation for use by the nuclear industry; and maintaining and strengthening the nuclear materials human knowledge base to
address new and as yet unknown degradation modes.