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11346 Dealing with Uncertainty - Imipact of Scaling Prediction on Concept Selection for Deepwater Production Systems

Picture for 11346 Dealing with Uncertainty - Imipact of Scaling Prediction
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Product Number: 51300-11346-SG
ISBN: 2011 11346 CP
Author: Lee C. Jordan, Ani Simsek, Connie L. Bargas, Jep T. Bracey and Ferhat M. Erdal
Publication Date: 2011
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$20.00
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Concept selection and initial design of deepwater subsea production systems can have a profound impact on the evaluation of the commercial viability of a discovery. Although detailed design comes later in the process, the decisions made at this early stage of a project will generally provide the template that is carried through to construction and operation. Scale management can be a significant factor in deciding the outcome of the concept selection phase, particularly for fields that are expected to require seawater injection at some stage in their design life. Early in a project it is common to have information from only one or two exploration wells and where water samples are often not available, are heavily contaminated, or have been gathered from locations away from the main production targets. This paper outlines the difficulties faced when evaluating the various scale management techniques available to deepwater operators at the early stages of the project design process and in providing fit for purpose design recommendations that are not overly conservative but that still account for the risk posed by having only limited supporting information available. An approach is presented that addresses these risks and uncertainties by applying scale modeling along with a simple heuristic strategy to support the selection of appropriate scale management techniques for deepwater subsea fields. Several comparative examples for projects in the Gulf of Mexico are provided to explain the different outcomes that can result from this process.

Key words: Deepwater, Risk Management, Scale, Subsea, Water Injection
Concept selection and initial design of deepwater subsea production systems can have a profound impact on the evaluation of the commercial viability of a discovery. Although detailed design comes later in the process, the decisions made at this early stage of a project will generally provide the template that is carried through to construction and operation. Scale management can be a significant factor in deciding the outcome of the concept selection phase, particularly for fields that are expected to require seawater injection at some stage in their design life. Early in a project it is common to have information from only one or two exploration wells and where water samples are often not available, are heavily contaminated, or have been gathered from locations away from the main production targets. This paper outlines the difficulties faced when evaluating the various scale management techniques available to deepwater operators at the early stages of the project design process and in providing fit for purpose design recommendations that are not overly conservative but that still account for the risk posed by having only limited supporting information available. An approach is presented that addresses these risks and uncertainties by applying scale modeling along with a simple heuristic strategy to support the selection of appropriate scale management techniques for deepwater subsea fields. Several comparative examples for projects in the Gulf of Mexico are provided to explain the different outcomes that can result from this process.

Key words: Deepwater, Risk Management, Scale, Subsea, Water Injection
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