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Bayesian networks (BN) are useful tools for corrosion modeling. This paper is a case study demonstrating how to perform Internal Corrosion Direct Assessment (ICDA) using BN modeling with limited data. A BN model was developed for ICDA of a 50 km refined oil pipeline. Internal corrosion probability of failure along the pipeline was assessed.
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Bayesian network modeling was explored as a solution to the challenge of effective use of large datasets, due to its ability to analyze complex cause-effect relationships while considering the variability and uncertainty in the data.
Stress Corrosion Cracking (SCC) is a serious threat to our pipeline infrastructure. Past SCC failures have shown that both NN pH SCC and high pH SCC may lead to catastrophic pipeline failure. This is due to the formation of cracks that are difficult to detect. Moreover, SCC is difficult to predict, as multiple mechanisms must interact to lead to the formation of these cracks.
Environmentally Assisted Cracking (EAC) of gas transmission lines constitute about 2.6% of the total number of significant incidents recorded in the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Administration (PHMSA) database [1]. For the hydrocarbon liquid pipelines, the EAC-related incidents constitute about 1%. Although Stress Corrosion Cracking (SCC) incidents are a relatively small percentage of significant incidents, it is important to predict the location and rate of growth of SCC because of the potential for catastrophic consequences from the growth of undetected cracks.