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07657 Sour Service Pit Growth Predictions of Carbon Steel Using Extreme Value Statistics

Picture for 07657 Sour Service Pit Growth Predictions of Carbon Steel Using Extreme Value Statistics
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Product Number: 51300-07657-SG
ISBN: 07657 2007 CP
Author: Jon M. Wallace, Ramani V. Reddy, Dylan V. Pugh, and Jorge L. Pacheco
Publication Date: 2007
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The deepest pits formed during pitting corrosion of stainless steels have previously been shown to follow a Type III extreme value distribution, where a statistical upper bound on pit depth exists for a given point in time. In this study the Joint Generalized Extreme Value model parameterized with respect to both time and area is applied to predict pit growth of carbon steel under sour service conditions. Measurements of the most extreme pit depths were taken at different time durations to estimate model parameters and several statistical measures were used to assess the model goodness-of-fit. Results show pitting behavior of carbon steel, for the sour service conditions tested, is statistically of an extreme value nature and can be predicted using the JGEV model.
The deepest pits formed during pitting corrosion of stainless steels have previously been shown to follow a Type III extreme value distribution, where a statistical upper bound on pit depth exists for a given point in time. In this study the Joint Generalized Extreme Value model parameterized with respect to both time and area is applied to predict pit growth of carbon steel under sour service conditions. Measurements of the most extreme pit depths were taken at different time durations to estimate model parameters and several statistical measures were used to assess the model goodness-of-fit. Results show pitting behavior of carbon steel, for the sour service conditions tested, is statistically of an extreme value nature and can be predicted using the JGEV model.
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